Will the Republican Party win the FL-03 House seat?

The market is pricing in overwhelming Republican dominance of FL-03 at 88%, but the extreme 1338.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing—the $0 in 24-hour volume and $14.2M open interest suggest this contract is largely inactive. The 7/10 cliff risk index combined with the 200-day timeframe and 1¢ spread indicates structural fragility, where the No position's astronomical yield reflects not genuine opportunity but rather the mathematical artifact of an illiquid, lopsided market that could experience sharp repricing if new information or volume emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade