Will the Democratic Party win the FL-06 House seat?

The Democratic position carries an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,845.7%, reflecting the 9¢ price and suggesting severe undervaluation if Democrats have any realistic path to victory in this heavily Republican district. With zero 24-hour volume despite $14.4M in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity appears frozen at these extreme odds, indicating the market may be pricing in structural Republican dominance rather than responding to active trading. The 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for conditions to shift, yet the neutral regime score and high cliff risk index (10) suggest this market is vulnerable to sudden repricing if polling or fundamentals change materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade