Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?

This FL-13 market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $1.26M, with zero 24-hour volume and a punishing 32¢ spread that creates a 498% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting the 25¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the realized volatility of 2,677%. The neutral regime and relatively stable 7-day price movement (23¢ to 25¢) contrast sharply with the elevated cliff risk index of 3 and high information arrival rate of 3.9/hour, indicating this Republican-favored district is receiving active attention but lacks sufficient trading depth to establish confidence in the current pricing with nearly 200 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade