Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat?

Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

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89¢
Bid/Ask 88/89¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $24,710.806·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining
0x003dba8fca7e567af4273584d6a15046e2384ee8e9f3376e320e94ac492e1922

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 23.1%
IY (No) 1514.4%
Adj IY 749%
CRI 8
LAS 0.01
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)23.1%
IY (No)1514.4%
Adj IY749%
CRI8
LAS0.01

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:06:44 AM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:53:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x003dba8fca7e567af4273584d6a15046e2384ee8e9f3376e320e94ac492e1922 yes 100

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