Will the Republican Party win the GA-07 House seat?

The Republican contract has declined 11 cents over the past week (from 87¢ to 76¢), suggesting recent information flow favoring Democrats in this traditionally competitive Georgia district. The No side offers an extreme 578% implied yield against just 57.6% for Yes, indicating severe asymmetry that likely reflects thin liquidity ($760.77 in 24h volume against $12.9M open interest) and possibly mispricing on the underdog position. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in a meaningful Democratic shift, though the high realized volatility (108%) and elevated cliff risk (3) warrant caution on both sides.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade