Game 2: Utah at Vegas Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Game 2: Utah at Vegas Winner?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 3309% implied yield on the Yes side despite Utah being favored at 46%, suggesting severe illiquidity distortion rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 3309% implied yield on the Yes side despite Utah being favored at 46%, suggesting severe illiquidity distortion rather than genuine probability assessment. The 7-day price collapse from 11¢ to 40¢ combined with minimal volume ($76.83 in 24h) and a 905% realized volatility indicate this is a thin, volatile micro-market where small trades create outsized price swings. With only $78.92 open interest and 17 days to expiry, the 5¢ spread is relatively wide, and the market appears to be pricing in significant cliff risk rather than reflecting true Game 2 outcome probabilities.
Resolution rules
If UTA Mammoth wins the Game 2: Utah at Vegas professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR21UTAVGK-UTA yes 100