What is the current probability for "Game 3: Vegas at Utah Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 52¢ (52% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Game 3: Vegas at Utah Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2119.3% and 2119.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Game 3: Vegas at Utah Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Game 3: Vegas at Utah Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Game 3: Vegas at Utah Winner?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market displays extreme volatility metrics (3642% realized volatility, 2229% risk-adjusted implied yield) despite modest pricing at 55¢, suggesting significant uncertainty around a Vegas-Utah Game 3 matchup scheduled for April 24, 2026—notably 19 days before market close on May 9.

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52¢

Bid/Ask 49/51¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $261.04·OI $587.61·Closes May 9, 2026·17d remaining

KXNHLGAME-26APR24VGKUTA-VGK

7-day price255 snapshots · 7 regime

60¢49¢ current

Apr 1716¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market displays extreme volatility metrics (3642% realized volatility, 2229% risk-adjusted implied yield) despite modest pricing at 55¢, suggesting significant uncertainty around a Vegas-Utah Game 3 matchup scheduled for April 24, 2026—notably 19 days before market close on May 9. The thin liquidity ($378.34 open interest, $222.89 daily volume) and wide 6¢ spread indicate low trader confidence, while the recent price decline from 51¢ to 47¢ over seven days contradicts the current 55¢ quote, pointing to potential data inconsistency or sharp recent movement.

Resolution rules

If VGK Golden Knights wins the Game 3: Vegas at Utah professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2119.3%

IY (No) 2119.3%

Adj IY 2119%

CRI 1

RV 752%

VR 1.74

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2119.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2119.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2119%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	752%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.74	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:15:39 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR24VGKUTA-VGK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →