GDP growth in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that GDP growth in 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing February 28, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (9%) for modest GDP growth of 1.1-1.5% in 2026, generating an unusually high 1034% implied yield on the Yes side despite only $5,638 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (9%) for modest GDP growth of 1.1-1.5% in 2026, generating an unusually high 1034% implied yield on the Yes side despite only $5,638 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 6-cent spread is notably wide relative to the 9-cent price, and the cliff risk index of 9 suggests significant binary outcome risk, though the recent uptick from 9¢ to 10¢ indicates some recent conviction toward the lower growth scenario. With 318 days until expiry, this appears to be a thinly-traded niche contract where the extreme yield may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine market consensus on growth outcomes.
Resolution rules
If GDP growth in 2026 is between 1.1 to 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3 yes 100