GDP growth in 2026
Leader sits at 32% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2.1% to 2.5%
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
1.6% to 2.0%
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$206
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2037
4116 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
GDP growth in 20
GDP growth in 2026?: 2.1% to 2.5%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3
GDP growth in 2033?: 1.6% to 2.0%
KXGDPYEAR-33-B1.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 3.1% to 3.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B3.3
GDP growth in 2027?: 2.6% to 3.0%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 2.1% to 2.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.3
GDP growth in 2027?: 1.6% to 2.0%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 1.1% to 1.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.3
GDP growth in 2027?: 0.6% to 1.0%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 0.1% to 0.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.3
GDP growth in 2026?: 2.6% to 3.0%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8
GDP growth in 2026?: 1.6% to 2.0%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8
GDP growth in 2026?: 1.1% to 1.5%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that 2026 U.S. GDP growth will land between 1.6% and 2.0%, the most likely outcome among 15 possible ranges. The concentration near the lower end of historical growth rates suggests traders anticipate moderating economic momentum, potentially driven by tightening monetary policy effects or weakening consumer demand. The narrow spread between the leading outcome (26%) and its runner-up (24%) indicates genuine uncertainty—traders assign meaningful probability mass across multiple scenarios from below 1% to above 3%. Resolution depends on official GDP data releases throughout 2027, with the preliminary estimate for full-year 2026 arriving in late January 2027, though quarterly reports will provide early signals starting in spring 2026. Key drivers traders monitor include inflation persistence, Federal Reserve rate decisions, labor market stability, and consumer spending patterns through the remainder of 2026.
- ›The leading contract (1.6–2.0%) trades at 26¢ while the 2.1–2.5% contract trades at 24¢, indicating traders see near-equal odds of slightly slower vs. slightly faster growth
- ›Volume concentration in the 3.1–3.5% contract ($143 in 24-hour volume) versus near-zero volume in most other buckets suggests outlier scenarios have few committed participants
- ›No single outcome exceeds 30%, meaning no growth range commands consensus confidence
- ›The distribution clusters heavily in the 1.1–2.5% range (64% combined probability), with minimal probability assigned to either recession-level (<1%) or strong growth (>3%) scenarios
- ›Preliminary 2026 GDP data releases begin April 2027, but quarterly estimates in early 2027 will narrow uncertainty well before then
What moved the line
- Sep 231.6% to 2.0%↑12pp10→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 171.1% to 1.5%↑9pp3→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 181.1% to 1.5%↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182.1% to 2.5%↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 192.1% to 2.5%↑3pp29→32¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%last 79% · 0d
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 43% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 33% · 2d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 11d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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