GDP growth in 2026
Leader sits at 26% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1.6% to 2.0%
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
2.1% to 2.5%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$73
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
614 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
GDP growth in 202
GDP growth in 2029?: 3.1% to 3.5%
KXGDPYEAR-29-B3.3
GDP growth in 2026?: 3.1% to 3.5%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.3
GDP growth in 2029?: 2.6% to 3.0%
KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 3.6% to 4.0%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B3.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 3.1% to 3.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B3.3
GDP growth in 2027?: 2.6% to 3.0%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 2.1% to 2.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.3
GDP growth in 2027?: 1.6% to 2.0%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 1.1% to 1.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.3
GDP growth in 2027?: 0.6% to 1.0%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.8
GDP growth in 2027?: 0.1% to 0.5%
KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.3
GDP growth in 2026?: 2.6% to 3.0%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8
GDP growth in 2026?: 2.1% to 2.5%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3
GDP growth in 2026?: 1.6% to 2.0%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8
GDP growth in 2026?: 1.1% to 1.5%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3
GDP growth in 2026?: 0.6% to 1.0%
KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.8
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that US GDP growth will reach or exceed 3.5% in 2026. The forecast sits well below 50%, suggesting traders expect moderate growth rather than robust expansion. Current contract pricing shows the highest concentration of bets (24¢) on 2.0–2.5% growth, indicating consensus around slower-than-recent-trend performance. The gap between Kalshi (32% average) and Polymarket (16% average) suggests disagreement about growth likelihood—possibly reflecting different interpretations of inflation trajectories, labor market cooling, or Federal Reserve policy timing. The Q1 2026 GDP report, typically released in late April, will provide actual data that either validates or contradicts current market positioning. Traders face uncertainty around consumer spending resilience, business investment, and whether recent disinflation gains will hold without triggering a slowdown.
- ›Q1 2026 GDP print released late April 2026 will provide actual growth data; markets currently price subdued expectations with majority bets clustered at 2.0–2.5%
- ›16 percentage-point premium on Kalshi contracts versus Polymarket suggests structural differences in how venues' user bases assess growth probability or interpret available economic indicators
- ›Highest-volume contract (US GDP 3.0–3.5%, $1,234 24h vol) trades at only 7¢, indicating low conviction that growth will exceed 3% but fall short of 3.5%
- ›Multiple low-priced tails (<1.0% and 1.0–1.5% combined represent only 19¢ in implied probability), suggesting markets assign minimal recession or near-stagnation risk
- ›Recent Fed policy stance and published economic forecasts from CBO and major banks will influence pre-data positioning and post-release repricing
What moved the line
- Jun 183.6% to 4.0%↓4pp7→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 171.6% to 2.0%↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%Above 2.6%last 86% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 26% · 2d
- Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 3d
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.5%+last 49% · 5d
- Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.3%+last 54% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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