What is the current probability for "GDP growth in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 28, 2027. 313 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "GDP growth in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 413.7% and 32.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "GDP growth in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

GDP growth in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that GDP growth in 2026?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing February 28, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 407.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus 32.4% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk premium for the narrow 1.6-2.0% GDP growth band.

██████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

26¢

Bid/Ask 22/24¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $8,649.65·Closes Feb 28, 2027·313d remaining

KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8

7-day price19 snapshots · 2 regime

22¢22¢ current

Apr 818¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 407.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus 32.4% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk premium for the narrow 1.6-2.0% GDP growth band. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $8,613 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread indicates low liquidity, making the 22¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The sharp 4¢ rally over seven days into a neutral regime with 318 days to expiry warrants caution—this could reflect genuine probability shifts or thin-market volatility rather than informed positioning.

Resolution rules

If GDP growth in 2026 is between 1.6 to 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 413.7%

IY (No) 32.9%

Adj IY 207%

CRI 4

Overround -0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	413.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	32.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	207%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:03:52 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →