GDP growth in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that GDP growth in 2026?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing February 28, 2027. This market is pricing in only a 13% probability of GDP growth landing in the narrow 2.6-3.0% band for 2026, despite that range representing a historically moderate growth scenario.
Analysis
This market is pricing in only a 13% probability of GDP growth landing in the narrow 2.6-3.0% band for 2026, despite that range representing a historically moderate growth scenario. The extreme 769% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and just $7,152 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, particularly given the market doesn't close until February 2027—leaving 318 days for price discovery. The modest 1¢ spread and recent uptick from 12¢ to 13¢ indicate some recent interest, but the high Cliff Risk Index of 7 warns of potential sharp moves around resolution, suggesting this contract may be undervalued relative to the actual probability of moderate growth outcomes.
Resolution rules
If GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.6 to 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8 yes 100