Will the Republican Party win the HI-01 House seat?

The Republican probability at 6¢ reflects Hawaii's first district's strong Democratic lean, but the extreme 2859% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—evidenced by zero 24-hour volume despite $22.5M open interest and a wide 2¢ spread. The 16 Cliff Risk Index and 200-day timeframe suggest this market may experience sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election as actual candidate information emerges, making current pricing potentially unreliable for serious position-taking.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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