How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable. The 4547% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of thin markets where tiny position sizes create outsized percentage returns, while the sharp 16¢ to 3¢ price collapse over seven days suggests recent capitulation by holders. With 260 days to expiry and a 6.9% threshold that would require mortgage rates to rise significantly from current levels, the 6% probability appears to price in a low-probability tail event, though the extreme yield and cliff risk index of 32 warrant caution about execution risk rather than fundamental conviction.
Resolution rules
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.9% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.9 yes 100