What is the current probability for "How high will CPI get this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 37¢ (37% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How high will CPI get this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 304.5% and 67.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How high will CPI get this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How high will CPI get this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,034 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the symmetric 140.6% implied yield on both sides.

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37¢

Bid/Ask 32/37¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $21.11·OI $2,227.51·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.0

7-day price116 snapshots · 2 regime

67¢32¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,034 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the symmetric 140.6% implied yield on both sides. The 7-day price collapse from 66¢ to 50¢ combined with 465% realized volatility and a 3.67 vol ratio suggests significant recent information arrival (0.9 reports per hour), though the neutral regime score indicates uncertainty about directional conviction. With 260 days to expiration and a 4¢ spread, traders should be cautious about execution slippage on what appears to be a thinly-traded contract with potentially stale pricing.

Resolution rules

If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.0% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 304.5%

IY (No) 67.4%

Adj IY 128%

CRI 2

Overround 6.0%

LAS 0.16

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	304.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	67.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	128%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.16	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:31:55 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →