What is the current probability for "How high will CPI get this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 29¢ (29% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How high will CPI get this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 652.8% and 31.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How high will CPI get this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How high will CPI get this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 3¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in the 4.2% CPI threshold question.

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29¢

Bid/Ask 18/29¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $1·OI $251·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.2

7-day price25 snapshots · 2 regime

30¢18¢ current

Apr 102¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 3¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in the 4.2% CPI threshold question. The price has surged 275% over seven days (8¢ to 30¢), yet the 0% current quote appears stale given this recent momentum and the 328% implied yield on the Yes side, indicating potential mispricing. With 260 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market lacks sufficient depth to reliably assess 2026 CPI expectations, making it difficult to determine if recent price action reflects genuine conviction or merely thin-market volatility.

Resolution rules

If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.2% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 652.8%

IY (No) 31.5%

Adj IY 326%

CRI 5

Overround 6.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	652.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	31.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	326%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:31:42 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →