How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) despite a massive 599.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price is likely a stale or erroneous quote rather than genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) despite a massive 599.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price is likely a stale or erroneous quote rather than genuine market consensus. The 7-day price movement from 4¢ to 19¢ indicates recent volatility, but the 11¢ spread and zero trading activity make this unactionable—the market appears effectively dead despite 260 days to expiration. Given that CPI YoY exceeded 4.3% multiple times in 2022-2023, the near-zero pricing seems disconnected from historical context and warrants extreme caution before any position.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.3% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.3 yes 100