Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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sf trade 0x9795c74dee64799e0e25484c075dcc44f11ba03b95b9e41540004df544d639c0 yes 100