Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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sf trade 0xa3990fd5f543978a5449a6bda990103b645cef01d35d73f5ad958068ca2ec0c0 yes 100