Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?

The market is pricing in only a 12% probability of Trump selling between 1,000-2,500 Gold Cards in 2026, despite the program being officially announced with a $5 million price point. The extreme 1,880% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $85 and a wide 5¢ spread suggests thin liquidity and potential mispricing, particularly given that the resolution window covers the full calendar year 2026 with 258 days remaining for market information to accumulate. The recent price movement from 7¢ to 11¢ over seven days indicates growing conviction, though the modest $16,454 open interest and neutral regime score (0.5) suggest this remains a speculative niche market without strong directional consensus.

Resolution rules

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade