Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 26,830% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 14 days to resolution, suggesting either a data error or severe illiquidity dysfunction given the $0 24-hour volume and $8.3M open interest. The 7-cent bid-ask spread is unusually wide for such a near-term binary, and the 1,655% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 10 indicates this contract has experienced dramatic price swings, likely driven by sporadic large trades in thin liquidity rather than genuine probability shifts. With zero recent trading activity and the market approaching expiration, this appears to be a stranded position where the extreme yield metrics reflect the mathematical impossibility of profitable execution rather than a genuine trading opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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