Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11?

This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $5,490.70 in open interest and a wide 9¢ spread. The 2714% implied yield on the "Yes" side is a classic sign of an illiquid, low-probability outcome where the 8¢ price likely reflects minimal actual trading rather than genuine market consensus. With 136 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market carries substantial tail risk, making the current 8% probability for exactly 11 Republican Senate retirements difficult to validate without deeper liquidity.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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