Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

This market shows extreme distress pricing with the Yes side offering a staggering 63,686% implied yield, suggesting either severe mispricing or imminent resolution risk given the 14-day expiry and recent 71% price collapse (14¢ to 4¢ over 7 days). The 3,654% realized volatility and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 indicate sharp recent information arrival (1.4 events/hour), though current $60.7k daily volume provides thin liquidity relative to the $10.5M open interest, creating potential execution challenges. At 4¢ with only two weeks to expiry, the market is pricing an extremely low probability of 10+ successful Iranian ship attacks, but the dramatic recent repricing warrants caution about hidden tail risks or resolution ambiguity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade