What is the current probability for "Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 68¢ (68% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3247.1% and 6192.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 10,614% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 20¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026.

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68¢

Bid/Ask 47/89¢·Spread 42¢·Vol $144.753·OI $255.141·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

0xb938a51d25f8e5e10e49bb6fbb67dc4e08e67bf18d83d3dc86857a9090337cd1

7-day price399 snapshots · 33 regime

69¢59¢ current

Apr 114¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 10,614% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 20¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026. The wide 13¢ spread and modest $107.88 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, which likely contributes to the pricing inefficiency and creates execution risk for larger positions. With 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, the market faces meaningful binary resolution risk, though the 468% realized volatility and recent 4¢ price appreciation (16¢ to 20¢) suggest active repricing as April approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3247.1%

IY (No) 6192.2%

Adj IY 3416%

CRI 1

RV 1901%

VR 1.71

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3247.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6192.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3416%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1901%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.71	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.45	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

42¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:53:15 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb938a51d25f8e5e10e49bb6fbb67dc4e08e67bf18d83d3dc86857a9090337cd1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →