Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 67¢ shows a significant asymmetry, with the No side offering a 352.5% implied yield versus just 93.5% for Yes, suggesting substantial perceived downside risk despite the majority pricing. The market exhibits extreme volatility (519% realized, 5.31 vol ratio) with modest liquidity ($32.2K daily volume against $12.5M open interest), and the 6-cent price rise over seven days combined with a 5-cent spread indicates recent bullish momentum but tight two-way pricing. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a competitive race where the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite the Democratic lean.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade