Will the Democratic Party win the IL-10 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in a 93% win probability for IL-10, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $18,690 in open interest, making the price potentially unreliable. The extreme 2,425% implied yield on the "No" side signals this is a highly illiquid tail bet rather than a liquid consensus forecast, and with 200 days to expiry, significant political developments could shift the district's competitive dynamics. The modest 1-cent price decline over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently stable, but the thin liquidity warrants caution in treating this as a definitive probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade