Will the Republican Party win the IN-08 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing in a 93% win probability for IN-08, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $20k open interest, making this price potentially unreliable. The extreme 2425% implied yield on the "No" side signals that contrarian bettors are vastly undercompensated for tail risk, suggesting either deep conviction in Republican dominance or thin liquidity distorting the payout structure. With 200 days to expiration and a modest 1-cent spread, this market lacks the trading activity needed to validate such a lopsided probability in a competitive midterm environment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade