Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?

0xb198d78167e70ab2dcc9d675e454d1152156765db1617380f71417d8466a0c27 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining

Price

Last

25¢

Bid

20¢

Ask

30¢

Spread

10¢

24h Volume

$42.07

Open Interest

$3,499.568

Indicator Stack

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	422.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side
IY (No)	47.0%	Annualized return on the NO side
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution
EE	—	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.32	Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500
CVR	—	Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron
RV	1195%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history
VR	5.08	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window)
Adj IY	287%	Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS)
Residual VR	—	VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't

7-Day History

333 indicator snapshots · 7 regime snapshots

Regime Snapshot

Score

0.409

Label

neutral

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/15/2026, 10:10:01 PM

About this market

This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

How to trade

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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xb198d78167e70ab2dcc9d675e454d1152156765db1617380f71417d8466a0c27 yes 100