Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Polymarket, closing June 3, 2026.

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95¢
Bid/Ask 94/95¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $18,477.496·Closes Jun 3, 2026·42d remaining
0x4f3ec78825d87d0412b8f5668989a9547da4d167667cf2e04828a995e40a5fbe
7-day price21 snapshots · 7 regime
96¢95¢ current
Apr 993¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45.6%
IY (No) 16452.8%
Adj IY 8226%
CRI 19
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)45.6%
IY (No)16452.8%
Adj IY8226%
CRI19

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:26:05 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x4f3ec78825d87d0412b8f5668989a9547da4d167667cf2e04828a995e40a5fbe yes 100

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