Incheon Mayoral Election Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Incheon Mayoral Election Winner: Yoo Jeong-bok
Incheon Mayoral Election Winner: Yoo Jeong-bok
0x45d068…a2cb
Analysis
This 94% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Chong Won-oh will win the Incheon mayoral election. The high confidence appears driven by polling data, candidate positioning, or recent political momentum favoring Chong, while the remaining 6% uncertainty accounts for potential shifts in voter preference, undecided voters breaking toward the alternative candidate, or unexpected campaign developments. The election date itself will definitively resolve this contract, with results providing clear evidence of the winner. Market prices could shift if new polls release, major campaign events occur, or if voting day approaches with tightening race dynamics.
- ›Current market price of 88¢ for Chong Won-oh implies approximately 88% probability based on Polymarket pricing
- ›The 12-point gap between top candidates suggests meaningful separation in market expectations rather than a competitive race
- ›Trading volume indicates moderate liquidity ($15,458 in 24h volume for Seoul mayoral contracts), affecting price stability
- ›The contract will resolve on or shortly after the scheduled Incheon mayoral election date with official government results
- ›Any major campaign announcement, scandal, or shift in voter polling between now and election day could move the probability significantly
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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