Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 3, 2026. Yoo Jeong-bok is priced at a severe discount (4¢) with extraordinarily high implied yield of 18,670% on the Yes side, suggesting either minimal market confidence or potential mispricing given the candidate's political standing.
Analysis
Yoo Jeong-bok is priced at a severe discount (4¢) with extraordinarily high implied yield of 18,670% on the Yes side, suggesting either minimal market confidence or potential mispricing given the candidate's political standing. The market shows extreme volatility (1,568% realized) and thin liquidity ($101.79 daily volume) relative to open interest of $23.6K, creating elevated cliff risk (24) as the June 3 expiry approaches in 47 days. The 7-day price stability (3¢→4¢) combined with neutral regime conditions and low information arrival (0.5/h) suggests this may be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced election outcome.
Resolution rules
The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x45d06878c8e37b634909a2216e1d765f88e7f6f3a0cdb7d2c86984543a0ba2cb yes 100