Iran leadership change by May 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Iran leadership change by May 31?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing May 31, 2026. The market is pricing an extremely low 14% probability for Iranian leadership change within 45 days, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 5014.5% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail-risk positioning.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low 14% probability for Iranian leadership change within 45 days, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 5014.5% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail-risk positioning. The recent 3-cent price decline from 17¢ to 14¢ combined with modest $4.5M daily volume and $81M open interest indicates weak conviction among traders, while the tight 1¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggest the market is bracing for binary resolution dynamics near expiry. This appears to be a classic low-probability, high-payout speculation rather than a balanced probability assessment.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2f6a547524c1d290f8a2bbff80be2b0e8ca1b3b716dd3a0e74bf8ddb3e3fd6b7 yes 100