Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
0xa6ddb7146f48a12dbf73456d654211b01d7493829932c31b7fe85d82120d338f · closes Apr 30, 2026 · 15 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 478.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 13182.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.02 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 260% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.95 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.9/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 12869% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
441 indicator snapshots · 103 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xa6ddb7146f48a12dbf73456d654211b01d7493829932c31b7fe85d82120d338f yes 100