Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Nate Morris's odds have collapsed 53% over seven days from 17¢ to 8¢, suggesting significant negative information arrival at a rate of 1.9 updates per hour, yet the market remains extremely illiquid with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $12.9M open interest.
Analysis
Nate Morris's odds have collapsed 53% over seven days from 17¢ to 8¢, suggesting significant negative information arrival at a rate of 1.9 updates per hour, yet the market remains extremely illiquid with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $12.9M open interest. The 13,136% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the extreme mispricing typical of thin markets, while the 12 Cliff Risk Index and 2,168% realized volatility indicate this contract is highly unstable with 32 days to the May 2026 primary—traders should be cautious of execution risk given the 3¢ spread on such a low-probability outcome.
Also on kalshi at 3¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade 0x060e72bc4bb6b08e29d1ed0ec3a3fd348dc0aa5e2dd1d162cfb076005582f2ba yes 100