Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
0xaca9f75fa5c25b6f54d0789582a63c8327aef0ebb5b1502ae2227fda09301f77 · closes Oct 3, 2026 · 170 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 717.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 64.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.22 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1572% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 8.23 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 561% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
560 indicator snapshots · 10 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xaca9f75fa5c25b6f54d0789582a63c8327aef0ebb5b1502ae2227fda09301f77 yes 100