Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (509% realized, 1.67 vol ratio) with an unusually high implied yield of 931% on the Yes side, suggesting either significant mispricing or substantial uncertainty about Raman's candidacy and viability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (509% realized, 1.67 vol ratio) with an unusually high implied yield of 931% on the Yes side, suggesting either significant mispricing or substantial uncertainty about Raman's candidacy and viability. The 11¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 50¢ midpoint, and the 2.6 info arrivals per hour indicate active trading despite modest $529K daily volume and relatively thin $18.1M open interest for a major municipal race. With 46 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in considerable tail risk, possibly reflecting uncertainty around whether Raman will even be a competitive candidate in the general election.
Also on kalshi at 13¢(Δ +41¢)
Resolution rules
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x694595d0a008f10e4701285d071e4b08407495f6f8a6bd8cbdd7de522fa9b463 yes 100