Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $19.5K open interest, suggesting the 41¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus given the 3¢ spread and 173% realized volatility.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $19.5K open interest, suggesting the 41¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus given the 3¢ spread and 173% realized volatility. The astronomical 992% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or reflects genuine uncertainty about Shah's viability as a candidate, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and modest 0.5 info arrivals per hour suggest limited new information is flowing in. With 53 days to the June 9 primary and the market having drifted down 3¢ over seven days, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an actively traded prediction.
Also on kalshi at 39¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x906842f0acae58e8633c17e933010e1662ca6616fbb3de89f61ff7a3718f5cc7 yes 100