Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

This illiquid market shows extreme pricing dynamics with zero 24-hour volume despite $12,362 open interest and a notable 4-cent decline over seven days (from 24¢ to 20¢), suggesting either stale pricing or a sharp recent shift in sentiment toward Bush's candidacy. The 2592% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 53-day time horizon, indicating either severe mispricing or market participants pricing in substantial tail risk, though the neutral regime score and 1056% realized volatility suggest genuine uncertainty rather than directional conviction. With a 4-point Cliff Risk Index and minimal liquidity, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be treated as speculative given the lack of recent trading activity to validate the current 20¢ valuation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Regime

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