Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

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28¢
Bid/Ask 27/29¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $25,377.875·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining
0xf83d984df52349f3b30fc061e888582d411c16bcf8c9710e3d2d3e1c5b075afe
7-day price30 snapshots · 3 regime
28¢28¢ current
Apr 827¢Apr 16

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 480.9%
IY (No) 72.7%
Adj IY 240%
CRI 3
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)480.9%
IY (No)72.7%
Adj IY240%
CRI3

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:28:51 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xf83d984df52349f3b30fc061e888582d411c16bcf8c9710e3d2d3e1c5b075afe yes 100

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