What is the current probability for "Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 46¢ (46% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 13, 2026. 52 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 824.3% and 598.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing June 13, 2026. The Celtics' Eastern Conference Finals odds are priced at 38¢ with an exceptionally high implied yield of 1,044.5% for Yes positions, suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail risk being priced in with 57 days to resolution.

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46¢

Bid/Ask 45/46¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $8,250.786·OI $73,532.832·Closes Jun 13, 2026·52d remaining

0xa3186ffc28c45f336920279d5085529d530690a1623997819f3a3db05119dbaa

7-day price212 snapshots · 110 regime

46¢46¢ current

Apr 836¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The Celtics' Eastern Conference Finals odds are priced at 38¢ with an exceptionally high implied yield of 1,044.5% for Yes positions, suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail risk being priced in with 57 days to resolution. The market shows stable pricing over 7 days despite 347% realized volatility and a tight 1¢ spread, indicating reasonable liquidity ($91K open interest) but modest daily volume ($5,947) relative to the outsized yield opportunity. The neutral regime score and elevated info arrival rate (1.6/h) suggest the market is actively processing new information, though the Cliff Risk Index of 2 warrants caution about potential binary resolution events.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.84Close-time delta 782h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA Eastern Conference Finals based on the rules of the NBA. If the 2025-26 NBA Eastern Conference Finals winner is not announced by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 824.3%

IY (No) 598.1%

Adj IY 403%

CRI 1

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.02

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	824.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	598.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	403%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:23:43 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:23:19 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa3186ffc28c45f336920279d5085529d530690a1623997819f3a3db05119dbaa yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →