Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. At 85¢, this market prices Keldon Johnson as a heavy favorite with an 87.1% implied yield on the yes side, but the asymmetric 2796% yield on the no side signals extreme confidence rather than balanced pricing—typical of long-shot bets.
Analysis
At 85¢, this market prices Keldon Johnson as a heavy favorite with an 87.1% implied yield on the yes side, but the asymmetric 2796% yield on the no side signals extreme confidence rather than balanced pricing—typical of long-shot bets. The 7-point rally from 79¢ over seven days combined with 229% realized volatility and a 6.0 Cliff Risk Index suggests recent positive sentiment shifts (likely tied to Johnson's actual 2025–26 performance or role changes), though the modest $5.4M daily volume leaves room for sharp reversals before the June 2026 expiration. With 74 days to resolution and an information arrival rate of 1.3 events per hour, this market remains highly sensitive to mid-season injury reports or unexpected bench role changes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Sixth Man of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x052060aec2007cd5f09868dc248c878384ae28977287581dfefb1d9f154d344f yes 100