NBA Sixth Man of the Year Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “How many oil” vs “Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many oil
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd
KXBARRELS-26-14.00
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.10M bpd
KXBARRELS-26-14.10
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 430
KXOILRIGS-26-430
Cluster 2
Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner
Analysis
This 36% probability represents the estimated chance that a specific player wins the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. The aggregated market pricing reflects uncertainty about which reserve player will have the strongest impact off the bench this season. The award typically goes to a high-usage backup scorer or reliable playmaker whose team performance and individual statistics stand out among candidates. The primary drivers of this probability are the player's playing time consistency, scoring efficiency, and team success—all of which will be finalized when the NBA season concludes. The award will be determined in June 2026 when the NBA announces its award winners, at which point the market will resolve based on the official voting results from media and fan panels.
- ›Player's average minutes per game and whether bench role remains stable throughout the season
- ›Total points and efficiency metrics compared to other sixth man candidates over 82 games
- ›Team's overall win-loss record and playoff seeding, as voters often favor contributors on successful teams
- ›Voter perception influenced by nationally televised games and player visibility during the season
- ›Competing candidates' performance levels—the award is relative, so injury or decline among other bench scorers could shift probability
What moved the line
- Jun 20At least 14.00M bpd↑10pp5→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18At least 14.00M bpd↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20At least 14.10M bpd↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22At least 14.00M bpd↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24At least 14.10M bpd↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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