Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?

The Democratic contract on NC-03 is pricing in just a 14% win probability, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,121% on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing given the $18.3M open interest against zero 24-hour volume. The 3¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate market uncertainty, though the 200-day timeline to the 2026 election provides ample time for price discovery before the November 3rd close.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade