Will the Republican Party win the NC-10 House seat?

The Republican lean in NC-10 is priced extremely high at 88¢, reflecting a heavily favored outcome, yet the market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite $17.3M in open interest, suggesting either strong consensus or illiquidity masking true conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—24.8% for Yes versus 1333.9% for No—indicate the No position carries extreme tail risk, typical of heavily skewed political markets where contrarian bets require exceptional returns to attract capital. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a stable, consensus-driven market that may not see significant repricing unless major political developments shift the NC-10 race dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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