Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing NC-13 as heavily Republican-favored at just 15¢, implying an 85% Republican win probability, yet the extreme 1030.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing given the modest $22.2k open interest and minimal $5.2 daily volume. With 201 days until resolution and a stable price over the past week, this market appears to be a low-liquidity niche bet where the quoted yield may not reflect realistic return expectations due to thin trading conditions and a 6 Cliff Risk Index indicating elevated binary event risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade