Will the Republican Party win the NC-14 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 81% to retain NC-14, but the extreme 775.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $21k open interest with only $288 in 24-hour volume suggests thin trading that may not reflect true consensus. The massive cliff risk index of 4 combined with the 201-day timeframe indicates significant uncertainty around candidate selection and district dynamics, making the lopsided pricing potentially vulnerable to shifts as the 2026 cycle develops and clearer information emerges about both parties' nominees.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade