Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?

The Democrats' 9-cent price reflects a heavily Republican-favored race, but the extreme 1,846% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—with only $1.07 in 24-hour volume against $21k open interest, any modest Democratic momentum could trigger outsized price swings. The 593% realized volatility and 10 Cliff Risk Index confirm this is a thin, volatile market where the tight 1-cent spread masks underlying pricing uncertainty. While the 7-day movement from 8¢ to 9¢ suggests slight Republican strengthening, the market's low information arrival rate (0.3/h) means it's largely dormant and may not reflect current political developments in Nebraska.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade