Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Alex Zdan's odds have surged 23% over the past week (from 39¢ to 48¢), now pricing him at 47% to win the Republican primary, though the extraordinarily high implied yields (859% for Yes, 732% for No) and extreme realized volatility of 145% suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing given the 46-day timeframe.
Analysis
Alex Zdan's odds have surged 23% over the past week (from 39¢ to 48¢), now pricing him at 47% to win the Republican primary, though the extraordinarily high implied yields (859% for Yes, 732% for No) and extreme realized volatility of 145% suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing given the 46-day timeframe. With only $162 in daily volume against $20.4k open interest, liquidity is notably thin, making the 2¢ spread potentially misleading—this low-volume environment could amplify price swings if new information emerges about the primary field. The neutral regime and 0.5 info arrivals per hour indicate the market is still digesting candidate developments, so the sharp recent rally warrants scrutiny as to whether it reflects genuine shifts in Zdan's viability or reflects thin-market volatility.
Also on kalshi at 47¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Jersey. If no 2026 New Jersey Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Jersey Republican party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc0c812eaa5ae190e9e346aa8325f3c47ccffa8aa0066fea28512ab100b989379 yes 100