Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

This market reflects extreme skepticism about Farage's path to Number 10, pricing him at just 3¢ despite 259 days until expiry and $61.7K in open interest. The astronomical 4562% implied yield on "Yes" positions signals either deep mispricing or near-zero genuine probability, though the modest $551 daily volume and zero spread suggest limited liquidity for testing that thesis. With a cliff risk index of 32 and neutral regime conditions, the market appears to be pricing in the structural barriers to Farage becoming PM (Reform UK's parliamentary weakness, incumbent government dynamics) rather than reflecting any near-term political shock scenario.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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