Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?

The Broncos' championship contract is trading at a severe discount with an extraordinary 2512% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the massive asymmetry between a 4% win probability and the 25:1 payout structure typical of single-team championship markets. Despite substantial open interest of $142,754, the 24-hour volume of only $8,246 suggests thin liquidity relative to the position size, and the recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ over seven days indicates weakening sentiment toward Denver's prospects. With 349 days until expiration and a notable Cliff Risk Index of 24, this market carries meaningful tail risk around playoff elimination events, making the extreme yield partially compensation for execution risk rather than pure probability mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL league championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade