Will the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?

The market is pricing Democrats as heavy favorites at 82¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting limited liquidity despite $13.7M open interest. The extreme yield asymmetry—39.9% for Yes versus 827.4% for No—indicates the No side is severely underpriced relative to risk, a classic sign of illiquid markets where small positions create outsized percentage returns. With over 200 days until the November 2026 election and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a relatively stable positioning, though the zero recent volume warrants caution about actual price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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